Item from the Smart
Marriages Archive, reproduced in the Divorce Statistics
Collection
September 10, 1998
(These data are from Clark, 1995.)
As you can see from these data the large increase in the divorce rate in
recent years came between the years 1960 and 1980. There were some increases
prior to this time, but the rate doubles during this period and then levels
off and slightly declines in recent years.
Another way to look at the changing divorce rate is to look at the probability
of divorce over several generations. Cherlin (1992) has provided an excellent
presentation of these data. (Note: Cherlin's table is reproduced on p.20
of THE FUTURE OF CHILDREN.) Cherlin compares the likelihood of marrying,
divorcing, remarrying and redivorcing of four cohorts of women (born 1908-1912,
1928-1932, 1948-1952, 1970). These groups roughly represent women born in
the early part of the century, their daughters born during the depression,
, their granddaughters born during the start of the baby boom, and their
great-granddaughters born in 1970.
There are some interesting comparisons among these groups. The marriage
rates are quite similar: 93% of the first generation, 97% of the second
generation, 95% of the third generation and 89% of the fourth generation
have or will marry during their lifetime. The likelihood of divorce is dramatically
different for each of these generations. The lifetime chance that the first
generation would divorce was 22% while the lifetime probability for the
great-granddaughters born in 1970 is 44%. Likewise, the chances of remarriage
go up across generations. Additionally, the likelihood of a second divorce
was only about 2% among the earliest generation and is up to about 16% of
the most recent generation.
An important question is what has caused the increase in the divorce rate.
Furstenberg (1994) notes that the United States has one of the highest divorce
rates in the world and that this rate has continuously grown over the past
140 years. He suggests that this pattern is connected to the high cultural
value that Americans place on independence. He asserts that a culture that
values independence encourages people to seek their own personal development
rather than stay committed to family.
One interesting test of this hypothesis is too look at the pattern of divorce
across the United States. Based on this independence hypothesis some have
argued that those pioneers who moved west were the most independent-minded
and that the divorce rate should be higher in the West than the East. In
1989 the regional rates of divorce were as follows: Northeast, 3.5; Midwest,
5.0; South, 6.0; West, 6.3 per 1000 population. In 1990 the regional rates
were: Northeast, 3.3; Midwest, 4.6; South, 5.5; and West, 5.1 per 1000 population
(Clark, 1995). These data seem to lend some support to this hypothesis.
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